Not investment adviceResearch and scenario-analysis tooling built from public sources only. Claims are labeled confirmed, reported or speculation; figures are approximate and user-editable.

Overview

Is uplisting, conservatorship exit or SPS forgiveness moving from talk to process?

SPS figures as of Jun 30, 2026 · Edit

Key figures

Combined SPS

$360B

liquidation pref · approx.

Fannie SPS

$234B

FNMA

Freddie SPS

$126B

FMCC

Treasury warrants

79.9%

fully diluted @ $0.00001

Warrant expiry

2028-09-07

701 days left

Conservatorship

In conservatorship

since Sep 6, 2008 · 18y

Signals

30 active · 5 observed

Headlines

500

12 sources · 4 failing

Last feed refresh

4m ago

Oct 7, 2026

Paths

Updated automatically every 15 min from headlines and filings · last check 4m ago

Full exit

Process started

Conservatorship termination (non-receivership). Gated by the Jan 2025 FHFA–Treasury letter / SPSPA side letter: absent the four gates below, treat 'full exit' headlines as political theater unless Path B/C evidence appears.

Contractual gates4/4

1. FHFA public RFI· Oct 7, 2026
2. FSOC briefing· Oct 7, 2026
3. Written proposal to Treasury· Oct 7, 2026
4. Treasury consent (after consulting the President)· Oct 7, 2026

Key signals: FHFA public RFI on exit · FSOC briefing on exit input · FHFA written proposal to Treasury · Treasury consent / President consult · ERCF relief / capital recalibration · CET1 / buffer vs ERCF milestone

Updated Oct 7, 2026

IPO in conservatorship

Rumored

Partial sale / public offering (and/or exchange uplisting) while the GSEs remain under FHFA conservatorship. Does not require the Path A gates; SPS and warrant overhang remain unless Path C is addressed.

Key signals: Underwriter mandate / bank CEO process chatter · SEC S-1 / registration statement · Exchange uplist application (NYSE / Nasdaq) · Trump Truth Social / X IPO-privatize language · Pulte X posts: operational / IPO tells · Ackman X / Pershing Square presentation update

Auto: Trump Truth Social / X IPO-privatize language — reported, 2026-06-08. https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxNLUhFZ1BybDRuX3dVM3lYWjhqUGdXM2duWGFkbmVFczBUWnY3bW9BZUM3S2FVV1AyMm93akhRZTlTSFJMci1GSWRORGZ1NVBzS2RrYnBtMXgyN0NnYXdhdTNaNjFyalNjUFRwRlhESjI2dDJnRWJ2blVZaUJhb3A0UnJBSXE0Um1mVUMtazd1RGtSN01TWllYbnR3?oc=5AUTOUpdated Oct 7, 2026

SPS / warrant deal

Idle

Cancel, convert, exercise, amend, or hybrid treatment of Treasury's senior preferred stock and the 79.9% common-stock warrants. Bull regime for legacy common: the SPS claim shrinks or converts without a full 79.9% warrant wipeout.

Key signals: SPSPA / SPS / warrant letter agreement · Warrant amendment / extension past 2028 · Junior preferred settlement talks · CBO / OMB score of SPS treatment · Litigation resolution (conservatorship / 2012 amendment) · Junior pref vs common relative volume spike

Updated —

Top headlines · 14d

all feeds →

Recent observations

signals →

Trump Truth Social / X IPO-privatize language2026-06-08
Auto-detected from headline (Google News: GSE conservatorship / IPO / Pulte / Bessent): “Trump Claims Fannie, Freddie Are Worth Combined $1T - The Real Deal”
AUTOreportedsource
MBS purchase / retained portfolio policy2026-01-09
Auto-detected from headline (Google News: GSE conservatorship / IPO / Pulte / Bessent): “Trump's order for Freddie, Fannie to buy $200 billion mortgage bonds raises IPO doubts - Reuters”
AUTOreportedsource
Ackman X / Pershing Square presentation update2025-11-18
Auto-detected from headline (Google News: GSE conservatorship / IPO / Pulte / Bessent): “Ackman Advocates Market-Based Exit Plan For Fannie And Freddie - National Mortgage Professional”
AUTOreportedsource
Bessent spreads / rates condition language2025-02-13
Auto-detected from headline (Google News: Scott Bessent + mortgage / Fannie): “Bessent says Fannie, Freddie release depends on mortgage rates - USA Today”
AUTOreportedsource
SPSPA / SPS / warrant letter agreement2025-01-02
Auto-detected from official source (Treasury.gov releases on the GSEs (via Google News)): “Treasury Department and Federal Housing Finance Agency Amend Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - U.S. Department of the Treasury (.gov)”
AUTOconfirmedsource
SPSPA / SPS / warrant letter agreement2021-01-14
Auto-detected from official source (Treasury.gov releases on the GSEs (via Google News)): “Treasury Department and FHFA Amend Terms of Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - U.S. Department of the Treasury (.gov)”
AUTOconfirmedsource