Not investment adviceResearch and scenario-analysis tooling built from public sources only. Claims are labeled confirmed, reported or speculation; figures are approximate and user-editable.
Capital stack
Who gets paid first, and what that leaves for legacy common.
Figures as of Jun 30, 2026 · approximate
Key figures
Combined SPS
$360B
liquidation preference
Ahead of FNMA common
$234B+
junior pref not entered
Ahead of FMCC common
$126B+
junior pref not entered
Legacy share if exercised
20.1%
warrants 79.9% fully diluted
Warrant expiry
2028-09-07
700 days left
Last price
—
manual entry below
Claim priority
- Treasury (SPS, warrants)
- Junior preferred
- Legacy common
- Not entered
- 1Treasury Senior Preferred (SPS)Senior to all other equity. Liquidation preference rises with retained net worth.FNMA$234B approx.FMCC$126B approx.
- 2Junior (legacy) preferredRanks above common. Dividends suspended since 2008.FNMAAmount not entered — add it belowFMCCAmount not entered — add it below
- 3Common (OTC: FNMA / FMCC)Residual claim. Subject to dilution from the Treasury warrants.FNMAPaid after $234B+ of senior claims (plus junior (legacy) preferred, not entered)FMCCPaid after $126B+ of senior claims (plus junior (legacy) preferred, not entered)
- 4Treasury warrants (79.9%)Right to buy 79.9% of fully diluted common at $0.00001/share; expire 2028-09-07. Dilutes common rather than ranking above it.If exercised, legacy common holders keep 20.1% of the companyTreasury 79.9%Legacy 20.1%Expires 2028-09-07. Exercise, extension or cancellation is a Path C decision.
Approximate figures from the project brief. Verify against the latest Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac 10-Q liquidation-preference disclosures and update here.
Path C scenario scorecard
Ranked from most to least favorable for legacy common
Bull regimeThe SPS claim shrinks or converts without a full 79.9% warrant wipeout. Watch the SPSPA letter terms for which row you are in.
| Structure | Legacy common | Notes | Evidence so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPS cancel / write-down | ↑↑↑ | Politically hardest — scored as a fiscal cost. Removes the senior claim that sits ahead of all junior capital. | 1 of 3 linked signals observed |
| Small IPO, SPS intact | Mild ↑ then fade | Overhang remains: the SPS liquidation preference still ranks ahead of new and legacy common. | 1 of 3 linked signals observed |
| SPS → government common (AIG-style) | Mixed / dilution | Ratio-dependent. Converts the senior claim into common alongside legacy holders; outcome for legacy common depends on the conversion price. | 1 of 2 linked signals observed |
| Golden share / hybrid | Mixed / ↑ if clear | Policy middle path: government keeps control rights without the full economic claim. Upside depends on how cleanly the SPS and warrants are resolved. | 1 of 2 linked signals observed |
| Cash repay SPS from IPO | Dilutive raise | Needs very large issuance relative to current market capitalization to retire a $300B+ claim. | 2 of 3 linked signals observed |
| Warrant exercise (79.9%) | ↓↓ | Legacy common holders are left with ~20.1% of the fully diluted company. | 1 of 2 linked signals observed |