Not investment adviceResearch and scenario-analysis tooling built from public sources only. Claims are labeled confirmed, reported or speculation; figures are approximate and user-editable.

If X → Y

What each development implies and what to watch next. Status updates from the signals you mark observed.

4 triggered · 0 premise broken · 2 not triggered

  2. If any of these is observed

    For legacy common: ↕ parse the terms

    Triggered Jan 2, 2025 by SPSPA / SPS / warrant letter agreement — Auto-detected from official source (Treasury.gov releases on the GSEs (via Google News)): “Treasury Department and Federal Housing Finance Agency Amend Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - U.S. Department of the Treasury (.gov)”

    Watch next

    • Is the SPS cancelled, converted, or left intact?
    • Are the warrants exercised, amended, or cancelled?
    • Conversion ratio if converted
    • 8-K filing text

  3. If any of these is observed

    …unless this has also happened

    For legacy common: ↕ volatile, SPS overhang

    Triggered Jun 8, 2026 by Trump Truth Social / X IPO-privatize language — Auto-detected from headline (Google News: GSE conservatorship / IPO / Pulte / Bessent): “Trump Claims Fannie, Freddie Are Worth Combined $1T - The Real Deal”

    Watch next

    • Underwriter mandates
    • S-1 / registration filing
    • Exchange uplist application
    • Whether SPS treatment is announced alongside

  4. If any of these is observed

    For legacy common: ↓ timing

    Triggered Feb 13, 2025 by Bessent spreads / rates condition language — Auto-detected from headline (Google News: Scott Bessent + mortgage / Fannie): “Bessent says Fannie, Freddie release depends on mortgage rates - USA Today”

    Watch next

    • Mortgage OAS
    • 10y Treasury vs mortgage rate spread
    • Follow-up Treasury statements

  6. If any of these is observed

    For legacy common: ↓ delays IPO

    Triggered Jan 9, 2026 by MBS purchase / retained portfolio policy — Auto-detected from headline (Google News: GSE conservatorship / IPO / Pulte / Bessent): “Trump's order for Freddie, Fannie to buy $200 billion mortgage bonds raises IPO doubts - Reuters”

    Watch next

    • Retained portfolio cap changes
    • Treasury/FHFA statements on mortgage rates